*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
…SATURDAY AUGUST 31 2024 11:59 PM EDT...
The following are special updates on current areas of interest in the Atlantic basin while on vacation. I completed the forecasts for area of interest #19 and #21 at 1200Z earlier today… and the forecast for area of interest #22 at 1800Z earlier today… however the situation for each area of interest has not changed since then.
Satellite image of the Atlantic basin as of 0240Z… current areas of interest are highlighted with their numeric identity:
Surface chart of the Atlantic basin as of 1800Z… current areas of interest are highlighted with their numeric identity:
Upper air chart of the Atlantic basin as of 0000Z… current areas of interest are highlighted with their numeric identity:
AREA OF INTEREST #19... The tropical wave of low pressure currently in the central tropical Atlantic continues to be unorganized while not featuring distinct curved thunderstorm bands... instead it features disorganized squalls of showers and thunderstorms located primarily southwest of the wave axis. The tropical wave is expected to continue generally west across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea in the days ahead as the currently east Canada frontal cyclone passes too far north when it later enters the Atlantic to influence the track of this system. During the five day forecast period this system will run into a southwest-northeast tilted string of upper vorticity that lies ahead… and there are no signs that the upper vorticity string is decaying fast enough to allow for the wave’s short-term development. The model runs that do develop this wave do so after day 5 when the upper vorticity string decays further which may allow the upper ridge cell centered north of the Caribbean Islands to aid this wave with upper outflow. Therefore I have dropped odds of tropical cyclone formation to 0% for the next five days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... this tropical wave may bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles islands by early this upcoming week… if it can remain coupled with an area of outflow just southeast of the upper vorticity string as it moves into the islands.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 1)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 13N-51.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 2)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of the Lesser Antilles near 14N-56W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 3)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Lesser Antilles near 14.5N-61W
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 4)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern Caribbean Sea near 15N-66W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 5)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Caribbean Sea near 15.5N-71W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT***************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%
Formation chance through 7 days... 40%
AREA OF INTEREST #21... The tropical wave of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic features a broad rotation that was near 12N-26W as of 1200Z earlier this morning… with an area of curved thunderstorm bands west of the central area of rotation that is weak on the colorized infrared satellite scale due to regional dry Saharan air. Still watching to see if this tropical wave develops underneath the overhead expanding tropical upper ridge (environment of low shear and outflow). For the 5-day window... I have set peak odds of tropical cyclone formation at 30%… and not higher as the models are not in agreement on developing this wave. I weight the 30% odds toward day 5 instead of the short-term to give time for the wave to move away from higher concentrations of dry Saharan air toward the east part of the Atlantic basin.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 1)... 5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-31W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 2)… 15% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 13N-35W
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 3)... 25% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 13.5N-40W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 4)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 14N-44W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1200Z Sep 5)… 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 15.5N-47.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT***************************
Not in the official outlook (recently removed from the NHC outlook)
AREA OF INTEREST #22… The tropical low in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico… positioned near the Texas and Louisiana coast… has not become better organized due to westerly shear on the north side of the ongoing Gulf of Mexico upper ridge. And with westerly shear forecast to continue… I continue to set peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to a low 10%. Continuing to expect the tropical low to undergo a west drift into the southeast Texas coast as a steering surface ridge dives south from Canada (the surface ridge is to be supported by the back convergence zone of the upper trough tied to the current east Canada frontal cyclone). Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not… southeast Texas and southern Louisiana may now see periods of heavy rainfall over the next couple of days.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 1)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of Galveston Bay Texas near 29N-94.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 2)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland southeastern Texas near 29N-96.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT***************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%
Formation chance through 7 days... 20%
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