*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...THURSDAY JULY 25 2024 11:20 AM EDT...
See area of interest #12 section below for a statement on the tropical low pressure area making landfall on the Texas coast near Matagorda Bay... tropical cyclone formation is no longer possible due to the landfall.
For the mid-latitudes of North America and western Atlantic... over the next few days a hot air mass upper ridge now approaching from western North America is expected to break the current eastern North America upper trough into one piece of energy in the vicinity of Texas that gradually decays and possibly an upper vortex in the western Atlantic potentially positioned near the United States east coast... with the remainder of the upper trough then continuing east across the higher-latitudes of the north Atlantic. A tropical disturbance is possible in the mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic in 4+ days... generally between the United States east coast... Bahamas... and Bermuda... which would be supported by the eastern divergence zone of the aforementioned cut-off upper vortex. The surface trigger for such a disturbance would be the tail end of the current north-central US surface front... as that surface front eventually is dragged eastward and offshore by the current eastern Canada surface frontal low. In this update... I have not declared a tropical area of interest (for possible tropical cycloen formation) for this region of the Atlantic as the recent model runs have trended with an elongated upper vortex and associated elongated upper divergence zone... which would result in an elongated surface disturbance that would struggle to have a well-defined center needed for cyclone status.
For the tropical belt of the Atlantic basin (Lesser Antilles to western Africa)... upper ridging favoring tropical activity is currently in place and is forecast to remain in place over the next several days. However an ongoing dry Saharan air outbreak has prevented tropical development in this region of the Atlantic basin... and none of the recent model runs show tropical development in the next seven days.
AREA OF INTEREST #12... The surface low pressure center that developed along the western Gulf of Mexico coastline... near the Texas/Mexico border... has continued north-northeast and as of this writing is located just south-southwest of Matagorda Bay Texas while steered by surface southerly flow on the west sides of the current Great Lakes and Atlantic surface ridges... and upper-level southwesterly flow ahead of the current eastern North America upper trough. This track will take the surface low increasingly inland across eastern Texas over the next 24 hours... and given that this system lost its well-defined center of rotation on doppler radar tropical cyclone formation is no longer possible going forward... this will be my final statement on this area of interest on this blog. A band of heavy rainfall has setup across the southeastern United States as the tropical moisture brought in by this system interacts with upper divergence on the southeast side of the aforementioned upper trough. The band of heavy rainfall covers southeastern Texas... northwestern Louisiana... southeastern Arkansas... northern Mississippi... northern Alabama... northern Georgia... eastern Tennessee... and the Carolinas where incidents of flash flooding cannot be ruled out.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 26)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland and west of the northern part of the Texas/Louisiana border near 32N-95W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 AM EDT**************************
Not in the official outlook
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Jul 25) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #12... no development shown
0000Z (Jul 25) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #12... no development shown
0600Z (Jul 25) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #12... no development shown
0600Z (Jul 25) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #12... no development shown
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