*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...THURSDAY JULY 18 2024 8:55 AM EDT...
Tropical activity in the Atlantic basin remains calm due to higher concentrations of dry Saharan air toward the east and pockets of suppressing cut-off upper vorticity across the western half of the basin. Upper ridging more conducive to tropical activity has potential to expand in the Caribbean region in a few days as the upper vorticity gradually decays from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air. However none of the models are picking up on development underneath the forecast Caribbean upper ridging... nor underneath the persisting eastern Atlantic/Africa upper ridging... over the next few days perhaps while projecting that dry Saharan air will continue to blanket the region.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jul 17) CMC Model Run...
**Tropical wave organizes into a tropical low near 10N-43W at 168 hours
0000Z (Jul 18) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Jul 18) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
0600Z (Jul 18) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
0600Z (Jul 17) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
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