*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...MONDAY JULY 15 2024 10:30 PM EDT...
The surface trough of low pressure that was over the Bahamas has dissipated in the Florida Straits (waters between Florida and Cuba) while the trailing tropical wave of low pressure is further southeast over Cuba and the western Caribbean. Because the trailing tropical wave is further south… it is becoming suppressed by upper vorticity lingering in the Caribbean… and with the aforementioned surface trough dissipated there is no surface feature remaining that can take advantage of the more favorable upper winds developing further north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore tropical development is not anticipated here or elsewhere in the Atlantic basin in the days ahead.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jul 15) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jul 15) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jul 15) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jul 15) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
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