*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...MONDAY JULY 8 2024 3:24 PM EDT...
See Beryl section below for more information on the tropical storm currently over eastern Texas that will be transitioning into a remnant frontal low pressure as it moves across a swath of the interior eastern United States and into interior southeastern Canada. See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the tropical wave of low pressure now heading for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere... a surge of dry Saharan air is keeping the Atlantic tropical belt calm in the wake of these two systems. In the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic... the eastern divergence zone of a western Atlantic upper vortex is producing a surface trough of low pressure whose maximum spin is near 30N-72W per the latest CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product (https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=). The surface trough will likely shift north... parallel to the United States east coast... along the west side of the Atlantic surface ridge and in the flow out ahead of what will be the remnant frontal low of Beryl. At the same time warm southerly flow ahead of Beryl is expected to inflate warm core upper ridging over the northwestern Atlantic... with the surface trough likely not developing while dealing with suppressing upper convergence on the southeast side of the forecast upper ridge.
TROPICAL STORM BERYL... Infrared satellite image of Beryl making landfall as an 80 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered just east of Matagorda Bay Texas... satellite image taken at 0936Z:
As expected Beryl re-intensified into a category 1 hurricane... and reached a peak of 80 mph maximum sustained winds... as it made landfall just east of Matagorda Bay Texas this morning. Since then Beryl is curving increasingly northeastward in the flow ahead of a surface frontal system and upper trough approaching from central North America... and will spend the next 24 hours transitioning into a non-tropical remnant frontal low supported by the divergence on the east side of the upper trough. Coastal surf will continue to be a concern across southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana until Beryl moves further inland. Gusty winds will remain a concern across coastal and interior portions of southeastern Texas all the way toward far western Louisiana over the next few hours until the tropical version of Beryl weakens further. Noting that directional wind shear favoring severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is present on the east side of Beryl... where the surface southerly flow on the storm's east side is not aligned with the upper southwesterly flow ahead of the incoming upper trough... as of this writing a tornado watch is in effect for far eastern Texas... western Louisiana... and the southwest corner of Arkansas (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/). The swath of heavy rainfall (with flash flooding potential) associated with Beryl and its non-tropical frontal low will spread northeastward from its current east Texas position across western and central Louisiana... northern Mississippi... southeastern Missouri... southeastern Illinois... Indiana... western Kentucky... western Tennessee... southeastern Michigan... Ohio... and southeastern Ontario through Wednesday. The amount of divergence on the east side of the upper trough supporting ex-Beryl is forecast to be elevated... and it is possible ex-Beryl produces gusty winds across this region through Wednesday. By late in the week any gusty winds and heavy rain produced by ex-Beryl shifts northeast across western Pennsylvania... northern New York... and southwestern Quebec. During this time Ex-Beryl and its supporting upper trough are forecast to become absorbed by a larger frontal system and its upper trough sliding across north Canada.
The following are the strongest winds (in mph) at each of the following National Weather Service stations (weather.gov) recorded so far:
**Port Lavaca (vicinity of Matagorda Bay TX)... sustained 32... gust 44... 5:15 AM CDT
**Bay City (vicinity of Matagorda Bay TX)... sustained 48... gust 64... 7:35 AM CDT
**Lake Jackson (between Matagorda and Galveston Bay TX)... sustained 43... gust 79... 4:53 AM CDT (weather station data outage since this report)
**Galveston (Galveston Bay TX)... sustained 41... gust 66... 4:52 AM CDT (weather station data outage since this report)
**Beaumont (southeast corner of TX)... sustained 38... gust 58... 10:53 AM CDT
**Lake Charles (southwest corner of LA)... sustained 26... gust 44... 11:53 AM CDT
**Houston (vicinity of Galveston Bay TX)... sustained 54... gust 84... 8:53 AM CDT
**Houston (vicinity of Galveston Bay TX)... sustained 37... gust 60... 11:53 AM CDT
**Bryan (interior southeastern TX)... sustained 39... gust 55... 10:53 AM CDT
**Lufkin (interior southeastern TX)... sustained 28... gust 45... 12:53 PM CDT
**Tyler (interior east-central TX)... sustained 15... gust 26... 12:53 PM CDT
**Leesville (west-central LA)... sustained 17... gust 35... 11:55 AM CDT
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1800Z Jul 8)... 65 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered just northwest of Houston Texas at 30.3N-95.6W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 9)... Remnant frontal low centered over the the eastern Arkansas/Missouri border at 36.5N-91W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 5 AM EDT****************************
3-Day Position (0600Z Jul 12)... 25 mph maximum sustained dissipating remnant frontal low centered over north-central Lake Ontario at 44N-78W
AREA OF INTEREST #10... The surface tropical wave of low pressure that was over the western Caribbean is now crossing over the Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico. The wave remains largely inactive due to a suppressing inverted upper trough stacked over the wave... albeit on the east side of the wave there is a band of thunderstorm activity that has setup offshore of the east Yucatan peninsula coast extending south-southeast to coastal Nicaragua. Because the inverted upper trough is forecast to dissipate by 24+ hours from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... this tropical wave may still encounter favorable upper winds once it curves northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the surface ridge weakness induced by what will be ex-Beryl over the US... thus I am keeping the wave as an area of interest and assigning a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation for 48 hours (I have low odds as model support showing development is currently absent). Another note regarding this wave’s forecast trajectory... it is expected to stay south and west of where Beryl recently tracked as the upper trough that will be re-curving Beryl across the US takes on a SW/NE tilt... such that the back convergent north side of the tilted upper trough builds a surface ridge due north of ex-Beryl that keeps this tropical wave suppressed more south and west.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... this system may later produce heavy rains across northeast Mexico (Tamaulipas... northern Veracruz... and vicinity) by the middle of this week should the wave indeed become re-invigorated by the forecast more favorable upper winds.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 9)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 21.5N-94W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 10)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of the Tamaulipas/Veracruz border near 22.5N-97W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 11)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland over northeastern Mexico near 24N-100W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT**************************
Not in the official outlook
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Jul 8) CMC Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Beryl... continues northeast into southwestern Arkanas through 36 hours while transtioning into a remnant frontal low... frontal low continues northeast into the Michigan/Ontario border through 84 hours and then dissipates over southwestern Quebec by 120 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0000Z (Jul 8) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Beryl... continues northeast into east-central Arkanas through 42 hours while transtioning into a remnant frontal low... frontal low then accelerates northeast into the northeastern US through 78 hours where it then dissipates through 102+ hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
1200Z (Jul 8) GFS Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Beryl... continues northeast into southwestern Arkanas through 24 hours while transtioning into a remnant frontal low... continues northeast into western Lake Erie through 57 hours and dissipates over Quebec at 96+ hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0600Z (Jul 8) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Beryl... curves northeast into Arkansas through 48 hours while transitioning into a remnant frontal cyclone... frontal cyclone continues northeast across Lakes Erie and Ontario through 102 hours and then dissipates near the Maine/Canada border through 120 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
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