*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...TUESDAY DECEMBER 17 2024 11:50 AM EDT...
The following is a report on the conclusions of Caribbean tropical cyclone Sara and eastern Atlantic deep-layer cyclone which occurred in mid-November.
TROPICAL STORM SARA… Sequence of satellite imagery from the National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook product covering the final events of tropical cyclone Sara from November 17 to 19:
In previous post #118 on November 16 (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-118)... Tropical Storm Sara was centered in the western Caribbean offshore of northwestern Honduras... winding down from its peak intensity of 50 mph maximum sustained winds while ingesting cooler drier air associated with a frontal system that had moved into the western Atlantic. Sara proceeded westward toward Belize under a ridge building behind the frontal system... and continued to weaken to 40 mph maximum sustained winds through the late evening of the 16th. During the morning of the 17th Sara re-built a small core of thunderstorms while making landfall on the Belize coast... however this was not enough for re-intensification... with the landfall intensity remaining at 40 mph maximum sustained winds with 1001 mb minimum surface pressure. While rounding the back side of the steering ridge... Sara's west track bent increasingly north... taking it across the Mexico/Guatemala border by the afternoon of the 17th by which time it had faded to an inland tropical depression... then into the far eastern Bay of Campeche by early on the 18th where it was downgraded further to a remnant low. During its passage over land... another surface frontal system and upper trough passed well to the north from the central US... across the eastern US... and into the northwestern Atlantic. However the next upper trough/surface frontal system that ejected from the central US behind that began to interact with Sara on the 18th and 19th... pulling the remnant low north-northeast into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. The remnant low lost its identity along the south end of the front by the 19th... with the remnant moisture from Sara contributing to heavy rainfall along the front and across the southeastern United States on the 19th.
AREA OF INTEREST #50... Sequence of satellite imagery from the National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook product covering the final events of an eastern Atlantic deep-layer cyclone from November 17 to 19:
In previous post #118 on November 16 (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-118)... was monitoring a deep-layer cyclone (low pressure system) positioned just north of the Canary Islands for possible acquisition of tropical characteristics... despite being over waters below 26 deg C the upper-layers of the cyclone were rather cold and de-stabilizing... allowing for squalls of shower and thunderstorm activity in all quadrants of the circulation. Due to the force of upper-level winds... the cold upper layers of the cyclone proceeded to de-couple from the surface layer... with the west side of the departing upper layer helping to push the surface layer southwest. The surface low as a result saw reducing shower and thunderstorm activity while losing touch with the cold de-stabilizing temps of the upper layer... and also due to suppressive convergence beneath the west side of the upper-layer. The decaying surface low proceeded to pass between the Azores and the Canary Islands on the 17th... and began to dissipate on the 19th while centered west of the southern Canary Islands at 30N-25W.
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