*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media... watches and warnings from your local weather office... and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
…UPDATE…SATURDAY OCTOBER 19 2024 7:35 PM EDT…
Recent events with tropical cyclone Nadine have now been added below
...SATURDAY OCTOBER 19 2024 6:18 PM EDT...
An incredible half day in the Atlantic tropics has transpired as tropical cyclones Nadine and Oscar have formed from the areas of interest tagged as #42 and #40 in previous post #102 respectively (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-102). This post is initially released with Oscar updates only due to the urgency of the situation… as it it rapidly intensified into a hurricane upon arrival into the Turks and Caicos Islands… see Oscar section below for more info. Events with Nadine will be added to this post soon. See post #102 for information regarding the rest of the Atlantic tropics.
HURRICANE OSCAR… Visible satellite image of Hurricane Oscar as of 2000Z:
For the area of interest that was moving to the southeast Bahamas… the following events have occurred:
(1) The NHC through 9:15 AM EDT raised odds of tropical cyclone formation to 90% while satellite scans of winds showed the small disturbance was developing a closed surface spin… at this time the system was centered just under 100 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands
(2) Based on its satellite appearance… the NHC estimated this system became Tropical Storm Oscar with 40 mph maximum sustained winds and 1007 mb surface pressure as of 11 AM EDT
(3) Aircraft recon reached Oscar at 1:10 PM EDT… and found it had already intensified to 70 mph maximum sustained winds with wind 991 mb surface pressure.
(4) Aircraft recon determined Oscar is now a hurricane with 80 mph maximum sustained winds and 989 mb surface pressure as of 2 PM EDT
(5) As of 5 PM EDT… aircraft recon measured Oscar had strengthened further to 85 mph maximum sustained winds with 987 mb surface pressure while centered 5 miles south of Grand Turk Island.
(6) This is an emergency for the Turks and Caicos Islands as the center of the unexpected hurricane is now moving in… in the hours ahead clear away from any building coastal surf... to protect yourself from wind shelter into an interior room in the lowest floor that is not flooded by water.
(7) Inagua in the southeastern Bahamas must be prepared for a similar situation tonight as the core of the hurricane is expected to arrive. Heavy rainfall will also spread over Inagua and the remainder of the southeast Bahamas… and the remainder of the southeast Bahamas will also see some coastal surf.
(8) I recommend that eastern Cuba should be preparing for potentially severe hurricane conditions (potentially life threatening coastal surf and highly damaging winds) on and just inland of the northeast coast arriving by tomorrow night… as Oscar can still intensify further as conditions remain favorable while Oscar turns southwest into the area. For areas on and just inland of the southeast Cuba coast… prepare now for less severe but still potentially damaging tropical storm to minimal hurricane force wind… some coastal surf is also possible. Heavy rainfall with flash flood potential will be another hazard across eastern Cuba.
TROPICAL STORM NADINE… Infrared satellite image as the center of Nadine approached landfall with northern Belize… time of image is 1600Z:
Based on a satellite scan of winds showing a better-defined surface center… the tropical low pressure that was approaching northern Belize and southern Quintana Roo became Tropical Storm Nadine with 40 mph maximum sustained winds and 1004 mb surface pressure as of 2 AM EDT. The NHC confirmed landfall of the center in northern Belize… near Belize City… around noon EDT as aircraft recon measured a stronger than prior forecasted peak strength featuring 60 mph maximum sustained winds with 1002 mb pressure. Around this time the NHC also noted a weather station measurement of 55 mph maximum sustained winds with 67 mph gust from San Pedro in southern Quintana Roo. As of 5 PM EDT… tropical storm force winds were likely occurring as far inland as northeastern Guatemala and southeastern Campeche as Nadine’s center continued inland into the northeast corner of Guatemala still packing 45 mph maximum sustained winds. Nadine will likely be downgraded to a fading inland tropical depression centered over north-central Guatemala by this upcoming 8 PM EDT NHC advisory. Going forward noting the following expected impacts:
(1) Periods of heavy rainfall with flash flood potential across Quintana Roo… Yucatan… Campeche… Tabasco… Chiapas… northern Guatemala… eastern Veracruz… and eastern Oaxaca over the next day or so.
(2) Eastern Veracruz could see gusty winds if this system tries to re-develop in the Bay of Campeche… and likewise for eastern Oaxaca if re-development occurs on the eastern Pacific side.
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