MY SPECIAL MESSAGES (FRIDAY JUNE 12 2026 9:30 AM EDT)​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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• I have continued my pause on daily updates on the Atlantic tropics on this site despite the start of the 2026 Atlatnic Hurricane season on June 1 due to personal life challenges and relative calm of the Atlantic tropics. I hope to resume daily updates soon. In the meantime refer to the National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) for up to the minute latest information on Atlantic tropical activity. Meanwhile the following remarks apply to the first tropical Atlantic area of interest of this hurricane season being monitored in the western Gulf of America:​​​​

  • Since Wednesday the National Hurricane Center triggered an area of interest in their tropical weather outlook in anticipation of a surface tropical low pressure area that would form in western Caribbean in the eastern upper divergence zone of a gradually collapsing upper vortex, with the tropical low pressure area eventually crossing the Yucatan peninsula and heading into the western Gulf of America.

  • The tropical low pressure area has indeed formed as of Thursday, and has already arrived in the southwestern Gulf of America overnight with a small concentrated thunderstorm area near its increasingly defined low-level spin. Other factors favoring tropical development include yesterday's dissipation of competing neighboring eastern Pacific tropical cyclone Cristina near El Salvador which was shredded by vertical shear imparted by the aforementioned upper vortex, and dropping regional shear levels (and increasing upper outflow) as the upper vortex continues to weaken, and odds of tropical cyclone formation could increase in the western Gulf of America through today and this weekend.

  • Interests across northern Veracruz, Tamaulipas, and southern Texas should monitor the progress of this area of interest for possible troipcal cyclone impacts (heavy rain, coastal surf, and gusty winds) as the forecast track of the tropical low could increasingly curve north toward ridge weaknesses associated with frontal lows passing across the Untied States.​​​​