MY SPECIAL MESSAGES (MONDAY AUGUST 10 2026 1:00 PM EDT)

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• I have continued my pause on daily updates on the Atlantic tropics on this site despite the start of the 2026 Atlatnic Hurricane season on June 1 due to personal life challenges and relative calm of the Atlantic tropics. I hope to resume daily updates soon. In the meantime refer to the National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) for up to the minute latest information on Atlantic tropical activity.

• Meanwhile the following remarks apply to the fifth and sixth areas of interest for this Atlantic hurricane season that the National Hurricane Center is tracking in the waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands:​​​​

  • The fifth area of interest was declared on Saturday August 8 as a westward moving surface tropical wave of low pressure which has had some rotating thunderstorm activity. However it has had minimal to no computer model support showing tropical cyclone formation, and upper vorticity to be pushed south toward this tropical wave by upper ridging to expand from the southeastern United States is likely to suppress its development potential as it nears the Lesser Antilles islands.

  • The sixth area of interest was also declared Saturday August 8 as a tropical wave of low pressure emerging from western Africa, this wave is currently just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with rotating thunderstorm activity and another one is about to emerge offshore of Africa and potentially merge with it. This wave has had notably higher computer model support showing tropical cyclone formation under potential light shear and upper outflow under sustained tropical latitude upper ridging to remain in place to the east of upper vorticity to settle near the Lesser Antilles. This upper vorticity will also tend to encourage a more northward deflection in track for whatever tropical cyclone forms, however it is too early to know if this system will pass over or just north of the northern Lesser Antilles by next week as computer model consensus for that timeframe is divergent as usual. ​​​​